The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October 2026, seasonally adjusted, after 0.6% in September, and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which published it on Tuesday, November 10. Both figures beat expectations: economists polled by Dow Jones expected 0.3% and 0.2%, according to CNBC. But the report has an oddity: there is no annual inflation figure. The BLS cannot calculate October's 12-month change because it did not collect prices in October 2025, during the federal government shutdown.
View the data as a table
| Headline CPI | 0.4% |
| Core CPI | 0.3% |
| Energy | 0.7% |
| Latest official annual rate | 3.7% |
Why the US October CPI has no annual rate
12-month inflation compares a month's index with the same month a year earlier. In October 2025 the BLS could not collect prices because of the lapse in federal funding, so there is no comparison point. Its release puts it this way: the BLS cannot publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for indexes missing October 2025 data (US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)). That is why the latest official annual inflation is still September's: 3.7%. Some media in Chile reported that 3.7% as if it were October's; it is not. Private estimates that interpolate the missing data put headline inflation near 4%, but they are not official figures (CNBC).
| Component | September 2026 | October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (monthly, SA) | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Core CPI (monthly, SA) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Energy (monthly, SA) | 5.2% | 0.7% |
| Shelter (monthly, SA) | n/a | 0.3% |
| Headline CPI, 12 months | 3.7% | not published |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), November 10, 2026 release. "n/a": not in the release summary.
US CPI and the Fed: what the market expects for December
With inflation far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, markets fully priced in a rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting. According to CME FedWatch, cited by La Tercera, the probability was 87.5% for a 25 basis point hike and 12.5% for 50, and the odds of another hike in January rose from 19.3% to 57.2%. Governor Christopher Waller had said that same Tuesday that rates should rise next month. On Friday the 13th, October producer prices come out, the next data point that can move bets (Diario Financiero).
Does your brand want to be where readers follow inflation and markets? See Pauta Financiera's formats.
See advertising optionsHow US inflation affects Chile
- Dollar: higher US rates strengthen the dollar. On Tuesday it rose CLP 17.07 in Chile, its biggest daily gain in five months (see the dollar jumps CLP 17).
- Long-term rates: Chilean bonds partly track Treasuries; if they rise, they push up mortgage rates.
- Pensions: the rise in US bond yields is what hit Funds D and E this year (see Fund E and swaps).
- TPM: the Central Bank of Chile does not mechanically follow the Fed, but a stronger dollar makes imports pricier; local traders still expect the TPM at 4.5% for two years.
In Chile, October CPI rose 0.5% and annual inflation reached 4.5%, according to the INE (see October CPI in Chile). Both countries thus have annual inflation above target, but with central banks on different paths: the Fed is heading for a hike and the Central Bank of Chile for a hold.
What's next: the calendar up to the December Fed
October's CPI is not the last data point before the Fed's decision. These are the dates markets are watching in the coming weeks, in the US and in Chile:
- Nov 10, 2026US October CPI: +0.4%No annual change due to missing October 2025 data
- Nov 11, 2026Financial Traders Survey in ChileTPM at 4.5% for two years
- Nov 13, 2026US October producer prices
- Dec 8-9, 2026Federal Reserve meetingMarkets price in a hike of at least 25 bp
For people with dollar savings or debts, the week remains volatile: the dollar index is near its highest since April 2025 (Diario Financiero). The guide on where to buy dollars in Chile compares the selling prices at banks, exchange houses and apps. This article is informative and does not constitute investment advice.
Frequently asked questions about the US CPI
How much did the US CPI rise in October 2026?
0.4% month on month, seasonally adjusted; core, 0.3%.
What is US annual inflation?
The latest official figure is 3.7%, for September 2026. For October the BLS published no 12-month change.
When does the Fed meet?
On December 8-9, 2026; the decision is announced on Wednesday the 9th.
When is the next US CPI?
November's comes out in December, per the BLS calendar; before that, on Friday, November 13, October producer prices are released.
