Money-desk traders do not expect changes in the monetary policy rate (TPM) for a good while. The [Central Bank Financial Traders Survey](https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/areas/encuestas-economicas/encuesta-operadores-financieros) for the first half of November 2026, published this Wednesday, the 11th, and answered on November 9 and 10, expects the Board to hold the TPM at 4.5% at its December meeting and no moves for up to 24 months, according to Diario Financiero. Traders did, however, cut from 3.7% to 3.4% the inflation they expect over the next 12 months and kept the 24-month figure at 3.2%.
View the data as a table
| TPM in December | 4.5% |
| 12-month inflation | 3.4% |
| November CPI | 0.4% |
| Dollar in 28 days | $970 |
What the November Financial Traders Survey says
The survey, which the Central Bank runs twice a month among traders at banks, brokerages, pension funds and other institutions, gives a quick read of what the market "prices in". In November's, the median expects CPI of 0.4% in November (the previous survey expected 0.5%), 0% in December and 0.3% in January. For the exchange rate, traders expect CLP 970 at both 7 and 28 days, below today's observed rate of CLP 977.05, which rose after the US CPI (see the dollar jumps CLP 17).
| Variable | November survey | Previous survey |
|---|---|---|
| TPM in December 2026 | 4.5% | 4.5% (current level) |
| TPM at 24 months | 4.5% | n/a |
| November CPI | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| December CPI | 0.0% | n/a |
| January 2027 CPI | 0.3% | n/a |
| 12-month inflation | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| 24-month inflation | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Dollar at 7 and 28 days | $970 | n/a |
Source: Central Bank Financial Traders Survey, first half of November 2026, with figures reported by Diario Financiero. "n/a": the previous survey's figure was not reported.
The TPM at 4.5%: what economists expect
The Central Bank's other survey, the [Central Bank Economic Expectations Survey](https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/areas/encuestas-economicas/encuesta-expectativas-economicas) (EEE), published on Tuesday the 10th, agrees on the rate: the median economist expects the TPM to stay at 4.5% at the next meetings and through next year, and to fall to 4.25% in two years, according to CNN Chile and Emol. Some respondents, however, see a hike to 4.75%. The TPM has been 4.5% since December 17, 2025; its history and how it reaches loans are in what the TPM is.
The EEE also brought the figure that made the most noise: economists cut their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0%, the third straight cut, with 3% for 2027 and 2.7% for 2028. For non-mining GDP they expect 0.8% in 2026, and for investment just 0.1% (CNN Chile). On inflation, the EEE expects 0.4% in November, 0% in December, 3.5% at 11 months and 3% at two years; for the dollar, CLP 960 in two months and CLP 930 in 11 months (Emol).
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See advertising optionsWhat a TPM at 4.5% for two years means for your loans and savings
If the market is right, the base cost of money in pesos would not change until late 2028. In practice:
- Consumer loans and cards: their rates depend more on the customer's risk than on the TPM, and are capped by the maximum conventional rate, which is calculated from average market rates.
- Peso time deposits: with a stable TPM, deposit rates tend to move little; what changes their real return is inflation, which the market sees falling to 3.4%.
- Mortgages: they are set in UF and track long-term bond yields more than the TPM; rising US rates are the risk to watch.
- The UF: CPI of 0.4% in November and 0% in December would mean the UF keeps rising in December and almost stalls in January.
The next monetary policy meeting is in December, together with the Monetary Policy Report (IPoM). Before that, in early December, the INE publishes November's CPI. October's figure was 0.5%, with annual inflation of 4.5% (see October's CPI).
How the TPM got to 4.5%: the cuts since 2023
The TPM peaked at 11.25% in October 2022 to curb inflation that exceeded 14%. From July 2023 the Central Bank cut it at thirteen meetings, to 4.5% on December 17, 2025, according to the Central Bank series. It has not moved since. If the surveys are right, 2026 would end without a single rate change, and the easing cycle would be practically over: economists see only one last 0.25-point cut in two years.
- 13-10-2022TPM 11.25%Cycle peak
- 31-07-2023TPM 10.25%
- 06-09-2023TPM 9.50%
- 30-10-2023TPM 9.00%
- 20-12-2023TPM 8.25%
- 01-02-2024TPM 7.25%
- 03-04-2024TPM 6.50%
- 24-05-2024TPM 6.00%
- 19-06-2024TPM 5.75%
- 04-09-2024TPM 5.50%
- 18-10-2024TPM 5.25%
- 18-12-2024TPM 5.00%
- 30-07-2025TPM 4.75%
- 17-12-2025TPM 4.50%
- Nov-2026Market: 4.5% for two yearsFinancial Traders Survey
Frequently asked questions about the financial traders survey
What is the Financial Traders Survey?
It is a Central Bank poll of money-desk traders published twice a month, with their expectations for the TPM, inflation and the dollar.
Where does the market expect the TPM in December 2026?
At 4.5%, the current level, according to both November Central Bank surveys.
What inflation does the market expect for the next 12 months?
Traders expect 3.4% (previously 3.7%) and economists 3.5% at 11 months.
How much will Chile grow in 2026 according to the market?
The median of November's Economic Expectations Survey projects 0%.
