Chile will produce 4.94 million tonnes of copper in 2026, a drop of 8.4% from 2025, according to the Cochilco, Copper Market Trends Report, third quarter of 2026. It is the lowest projection the Chilean Copper Commission has made this year and, according to the Finance Ministry's macroeconomic coordinator, Alejandro Guin-Po, speaking to *El Mercurio*, it would be the lowest level since 2003 (BioBioChile, November 8). The paradox is that the metal has never been worth more: Cochilco raised its expected 2026 average price to US$6.18 a pound, from US$5.95 in August.
View the data as a table
| Chile's output in 2026 | 4.94 million t |
| Change vs. 2025 | -8.4% |
| 2026 average price | US$6.18/lb |
| Chile's output in 2027 | 5.08 million t |
Chile's copper production in 2026: how much it falls and why
Between January and September the country produced 3.63 million tonnes, 8.5% less than in the same period of 2025. To reach the annual figure, the industry would need to average about 434,000 tonnes a month in the last quarter, 7.6% more than the nine-month average. Three operations explain 77.3% of the drop: Escondida (BHP), with 127,000 fewer tonnes (-12.5%); Codelco, with 84,000 fewer (-9%); and Spence, with 51,000 fewer (-25.7%), according to the report as covered by CNN Chile.
Cochilco and the industry point to lower ore grades, operational disruptions and, above all, the lack of large new projects. Jorge Cantallopts, director of the Center for Copper and Mining Studies (Cesco), and Manuel Viera, president of the Mining Chamber, agreed on that diagnosis to BioBioChile. Codelco's board chairman, Bernardo Fontaine, also lowered the state miner's expectation to about 1.2 million tonnes in both 2026 and 2027.
How Cochilco cut its copper output forecast and raised the price
The revision is sharp. In its August report, Cochilco expected 5.27 million tonnes for 2026 (-2.6%) and 5.55 million for 2027. Three months later, it cut both figures to 4.94 and 5.08 million. With the 3% recovery expected for 2027, the country would still be 5.7% below its 2025 output. Over the same period, the expected price kept rising: US$4.95 in February (Reporte Minero), US$5.55 in May (Reporte Minero), US$5.95 in August and US$6.18 in October.
| Cochilco report | Chile output 2026 | Chile output 2027 | 2026 price (US$/lb) | 2027 price (US$/lb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | — | — | 4.95 | 5.00 |
| May 2026 | — | — | 5.55 | — |
| August 2026 | 5.27 million t | 5.55 million t | 5.95 | 5.10 |
| October 2026 | 4.94 million t | 5.08 million t | 6.18 | 5.95 |
Sources: Cochilco, Copper Market Trends Report, third quarter of 2026; first- and second-quarter reports; Reporte Minero for February and May. "—": no figure in the source consulted.
View the data as a table
| Projected 2026 price | |
|---|---|
| Feb | US$4.95 |
| May | US$5.55 |
| Aug | US$5.95 |
| Oct | US$6.18 |
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See advertising optionsThe copper price in 2026, month by month
The pound started the year at US$5.56 (January 2), hit a month-end low of US$5.50 in March and closed October at US$6.66. The figure reported on November 9 was US$6.32, according to the Cochilco and Central Bank series published by mindicador.cl. For a daily breakdown and peso prices, see our article on the copper price today.
View the data as a table
| Copper | |
|---|---|
| Jan 2 | US$5.56 |
| Jan-26 | US$5.89 |
| Feb-26 | US$6.01 |
| Mar-26 | US$5.50 |
| Apr-26 | US$5.87 |
| May-26 | US$6.11 |
| Jun-26 | US$6.00 |
| Jul-26 | US$6.17 |
| Aug-26 | US$6.56 |
| Sep-26 | US$6.55 |
| Oct-26 | US$6.66 |
| Nov 6 | US$6.40 |
| Nov 9 | US$6.32 |
Cochilco explains the rise through supply: "The main support for the price is the limited response of mine output to demand that keeps growing," said its acting executive vice president, Claudia Rodríguez. Worldwide, mine output would fall 0.6% in 2026, to 23.30 million tonnes, while refined consumption would rise 1.5%, to 27.50 million. The surplus would be minimal: 144,000 tonnes (0.5% of consumption) this year and 215,000 (0.8%) in 2027. That is why the agency expects the 2027 price to fall only 3.7%.
What it means for the peso, public finances and growth
Less output at a better price leaves a mixed effect. In the real economy, mining is already a drag: in September it fell 12.1% year on year and pulled the Imacec down to 0.2%, as we explained in our Imacec article. In the fiscal accounts, the higher price partly compensates: Rabbitts Capital economists estimated that mining contributed US$7.3 billion to the Treasury between January and August, with private miners paying nearly 46% more in real terms (BioBioChile).
The figure also matters for the 2027 Budget that the Chamber starts voting today: the Budget Office used a long-term reference price of US$5.37 a pound and projects US$5.65 on the London Metal Exchange for 2027, according to the third-quarter Public Finance Report. The Finance Ministry expects 3.3% growth next year, partly based on more mining activity; a production rebound of only 3%, as Cochilco anticipates, leaves little room.
For the exchange rate, expensive copper usually supports the peso, but lower export volumes cut that effect. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz called mining "a drag" on the economy, an expression that the Economy and Mining bi-minister, Daniel Mas, distanced himself from. If you want to see how the currency has moved, check the evolution of the dollar today in Chile.
- Chile and Congo would provide about 37% of the increase in world mine output in 2027.
- China, with 57.3% of world consumption, would grow 1.6% in 2026 and 1% in 2027.
- The rest of the markets would grow 2.8% and provide two-thirds of the increase in demand in 2027.
How much Chile weighs in world copper production
With 4.94 million of the 23.30 million tonnes Cochilco projects for the world in 2026, Chile would provide about 21% of global mine output (Pauta Financiera calculation using the report's figures). It remains the largest producer, though with less weight than before. Codelco, with about 1.2 million tonnes, would account for roughly one in four Chilean tonnes.
Coming up on the calendar: the Central Bank publishes third-quarter GDP on November 18, which will show how much mining subtracted between July and September, and Cochilco will update its monthly production figures. If the fourth quarter falls short of 434,000 tonnes a month, the annual figure could end up even below 4.94 million. For investors, tight supply and growing demand are what support the price; for the country, the challenge is to produce more again to take advantage of it.
Frequently asked questions about copper production in Chile
How much copper will Chile produce in 2026?
4.94 million tonnes, according to Cochilco's October 2026 projection, 8.4% less than in 2025.
Why is copper production falling?
Because of lower ore grades, operational problems at Escondida, Codelco and Spence, and the lack of large new projects.
What is the projected copper price for 2026 and 2027?
Cochilco projects an average of US$6.18 a pound for 2026 and US$5.95 for 2027.
Will output recover in 2027?
Only partly: Cochilco expects 5.08 million tonnes (+3%), still 5.7% below 2025, and makes that figure conditional on operational problems being reversed.
