Oil prices plunged after the US midterm elections. On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, Brent fell 8.4% to US$94.9 a barrel, according to Diario Financiero, dropping below US$100 for the first time since early October. Markets read the defeat of Donald Trump's party as a sign that the new Congress will push to end the war with Iran, the factor that had driven crude up nearly 70% so far in 2026.
For Chile, which imports almost all the oil it consumes, the drop works through three channels: the dollar, which fell CLP 16.2 to CLP 965.9 that same day; gasoline and diesel, whose wholesale price ENAP estimates every Wednesday; and inflation, which the Central Bank had been watching closely precisely because of crude. This article reviews what changed and what did not for household budgets, using data from ENAP, the EIA and the Central Bank.
View the data as a table
| Brent drop | -8.4% |
| Dollar drop in Chile | -$16.2 |
| 93-octane gasoline this week | $0.0 |
| Kerosene this week | +$51.0 |
Why the oil price fell after the US elections
Democrats won control of Congress in a vote the US press described as punishment over the cost of living and the war. Vice President JD Vance himself wrote that "the reason we lost is the war," as reported by Diario Financiero. Investors bet that Congress will limit funding for the conflict and that the risk of new supply cuts in the Persian Gulf will fall; flows through the Strait of Hormuz were already close to pre-conflict levels.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose as much as 3% during the November 4 session and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.9%, according to Diario Financiero. Cheaper crude is good news for a net importer like Chile, but the starting point is high: Brent is still well above the US$62.5 it averaged in December 2025.
| Month | Dated Brent (US$/barrel, average) |
|---|---|
| Dec 25 | 62.54 |
| Jan 26 | 66.60 |
| Feb 26 | 70.89 |
| Mar 26 | 103.13 |
| Apr 26 | 117.29 |
| May 26 | 107.14 |
| Jun 26 | 85.40 |
| Jul 26 | 83.76 |
| Aug 26 | 91.08 |
| Sep 26 | 114.16 |
| Oct 26 | 123.93 |
Source: EIA, Dated Brent spot price, via FRED (St. Louis Fed). Dated Brent is the price of physical cargoes, which in 2026 has traded at a premium over the futures contracts quoted by the press: on November 3 the spot price was US$107.03, while its high for the year was US$138.21 on April 7.
View the data as a table
| Brent | |
|---|---|
| Dec 25 | US$62.5 |
| Jan 26 | US$66.6 |
| Feb 26 | US$70.9 |
| Mar 26 | US$103.1 |
| Apr 26 | US$117.3 |
| May 26 | US$107.1 |
| Jun 26 | US$85.4 |
| Jul 26 | US$83.8 |
| Aug 26 | US$91.1 |
| Sep 26 | US$114.2 |
| Oct 26 | US$123.9 |
What happens to gasoline prices in Chile this week
Nothing, for now. The ENAP report of November 4, valid from November 5 to 11, estimates a change of CLP 0.0 per liter for 93- and 97-octane gasoline, diesel and vehicle LPG. The only increase is for kerosene: +CLP 51.0 per liter. ENAP points out that it does not set prices at service stations, which each distributor defines, but the price at which it sells to distributors.
The reason is Mepco, the stabilization mechanism that smooths price changes. ENAP reports since September show gasoline and diesel moving every three weeks (September 10, October 1 and October 22), always upward. If that pace holds, the next window for changes would be Thursday, November 12, with the report ENAP will publish on Wednesday the 11th. Because Mepco cushions variations, a one-day drop in crude is not passed on fully or immediately to the pump.
| Fuel | Cumulative change Sep 3 to Nov 11 (CLP/liter) |
|---|---|
| 93-octane gasoline | +115.7 |
| 97-octane gasoline | +115.7 |
| Diesel | +275.5 |
| Kerosene | +304.3 |
| Vehicle LPG | +69.2 |
Source: ENAP weekly price reports, sum of the estimated changes in the ten reports published between September 2 and November 4, 2026. Over those ten weeks diesel is up CLP 275.5 per liter and 93-octane gasoline CLP 115.7.
| Nov 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 0.0 |
| Oct 29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -25.7 | 0.0 |
| Oct 22 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 91.5 | 24.8 | 13.9 |
| Oct 15 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
| Oct 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -32.7 | 0.0 |
| Oct 1 | 39.4 | 39.4 | 95.0 | 281.8 | 61.4 |
| Sep 24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sep 17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sep 10 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 89.0 | 0.0 | -6.1 |
| Sep 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Does your company sell fuel, insurance or car financing? Reach Pauta Financiera readers who follow gasoline prices every week.
See advertising optionsThe dollar fell along with crude
The Chilean peso was the best-performing emerging currency on November 4, according to the Bloomberg ranking cited by Diario Financiero. The dollar closed at CLP 965.9, its lowest level since September 25. Klaus Kaempfe of Credicorp Capital told the paper the peso is "clearly aligned" with oil and is one of the currencies that react most to it. The observed dollar rate published by the Central Bank, which reflects the previous business day's trades, stood at CLP 970.95 on Thursday the 5th, compared with CLP 994.29 on October 27, the 2026 high.
View the data as a table
| Observed dollar | |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | $933.40 |
| Sep 2 | $936.86 |
| Sep 3 | $936.32 |
| Sep 4 | $933.47 |
| Sep 7 | $934.35 |
| Sep 8 | $933.82 |
| Sep 9 | $926.94 |
| Sep 10 | $925.97 |
| Sep 11 | $937.17 |
| Sep 14 | $940.91 |
| Sep 15 | $957.53 |
| Sep 16 | $955.37 |
| Sep 17 | $954.85 |
| Sep 21 | $958.42 |
| Sep 22 | $952.00 |
| Sep 23 | $945.87 |
| Sep 24 | $959.39 |
| Sep 25 | $965.71 |
| Sep 28 | $964.10 |
| Sep 29 | $969.70 |
| Sep 30 | $970.46 |
| Oct 1 | $972.60 |
| Oct 2 | $983.84 |
| Oct 5 | $984.82 |
| Oct 6 | $977.25 |
| Oct 7 | $967.79 |
| Oct 8 | $979.85 |
| Oct 9 | $981.61 |
| Oct 13 | $978.61 |
| Oct 14 | $980.79 |
| Oct 15 | $987.03 |
| Oct 16 | $984.09 |
| Oct 19 | $981.65 |
| Oct 20 | $981.86 |
| Oct 21 | $978.56 |
| Oct 22 | $976.82 |
| Oct 23 | $986.58 |
| Oct 26 | $990.35 |
| Oct 27 | $994.29 |
| Oct 28 | $985.14 |
| Oct 29 | $981.08 |
| Oct 30 | $993.22 |
| Nov 2 | $992.66 |
| Nov 3 | $981.82 |
| Nov 4 | $980.59 |
| Nov 5 | $970.95 |
A lower dollar makes Chile's imports cheaper in pesos, from fuel to electronics, and lowers the peso cost of payments for anyone with dollar debts. To see how it has moved over the whole year, read our article on the dollar in Chile in 2026.
The oil price and inflation: what the Central Bank is watching
Crude is the main reason Chilean inflation remains far from the 3% target. In September the CPI rose 0.4% in the month and 4.1% over twelve months, and transport was the category with the biggest increase, at 7.9% a year, according to INE. In the minutes of its October meeting, published on November 4, the Central Bank said the average of WTI and Brent had risen about 25% since its September Monetary Policy Report and that all board members considered raising the rate to 4.75%. We explain it in detail in what the October meeting minutes say.
If crude stays below US$100, the effect would be the reverse: less pressure on fuel in the upcoming ENAP reports and on the UF, which is indexed to the CPI and drives mortgage payments and rents. What happens to the Central Bank's rate in December will depend on whether that drop holds and on the October CPI. How the UF is calculated and how much it has risen is in our article on the UF value today.
- February 2026Brent at US$70.9Monthly average, before the March jump.
- March 2026The average jumps to US$103.1The cost shock cited by the Central Bank begins.
- April 7, 2026Year high: US$138.21Dated Brent, according to the EIA.
- June-July 2026Breather: average below US$86
- September-October 2026New rise: US$123.9 in OctoberENAP raises 93 and diesel on October 1 and 22.
- October 27, 2026Central Bank holds rate at 4.5%It considered raising it to 4.75% because of oil.
- November 4, 2026Brent falls 8.4% after the midtermsFutures at US$94.9; dollar at CLP 965.9.
What it means for your wallet
- Gasoline and diesel: unchanged from November 5 to 11. The signal from cheaper crude will show up, if it holds, in the next ENAP reports.
- Kerosene: up CLP 51 per liter just before the end of the heating season.
- Dollar purchases: with the dollar below CLP 970, travel, foreign purchases and dollar installments cost less in pesos than in late October.
- Loans and the UF: cheaper crude eases pressure on inflation, which is what indexes the UF and what the Central Bank watches to set the rate.
Frequently asked questions
How much is a barrel of oil today?
On November 4, 2026, Brent closed at around US$94.9 a barrel, down 8.4%, according to Diario Financiero. The price changes minute by minute in futures markets.
Does gasoline get cheaper this Thursday, November 5?
No. ENAP estimated a change of CLP 0.0 for 93- and 97-octane gasoline and diesel between November 5 and 11. Only kerosene changes, rising CLP 51 per liter.
Why doesn't gasoline fall as fast as oil?
Because Mepco smooths price changes and because ENAP calculates its prices using import references from the US Gulf Coast, freight costs and the exchange rate. Since September, changes for gasoline and diesel have come every three weeks.
How is oil linked to the dollar in Chile?
Chile imports almost all its oil, so expensive crude raises demand for dollars and weakens the peso. On November 4, with Brent falling, the dollar dropped CLP 16.2 and the peso was the best-performing emerging currency of the day.
