The Central Bank of Chile came close to raising interest rates in October. The minutes of the October 26-27 Monetary Policy Meeting, published on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, show that all five board members considered raising the monetary policy rate (TPM) from 4.5% to 4.75%, although in the end they voted unanimously to hold it. The main reason was oil: the average of WTI and Brent had risen about 25% since the September Monetary Policy Report (IPoM), according to the minutes.
The TPM has been at 4.5% since December 2025 and is the benchmark banks use to price loans and set what deposits pay. The fact that the Board put a hike on the table changes expectations for the next meeting on Tuesday, December 15, when the December IPoM will also be released.
View the data as a table
| TPM held at | 4.50% |
| Hike option considered | 4.75% |
| Oil rise since the IPoM | ~25% |
| 12-month CPI (Sep) | 4.1% |
What the October Central Bank minutes say
The minutes describe a "particularly challenging" scenario, with three blows at once: a cost shock from higher oil prices, a negative demand shock from domestic and external factors, and a financial shock from tighter global conditions. The first two push inflation in opposite directions, which is why the Board was divided in its arguments, though not in its vote.
- Those who saw room to hike: some members said a 25 basis point increase "had a solid basis of support," given the new inflation outlook and the risk that it becomes more persistent.
- Those who preferred to wait: others warned that weak demand could last longer and open slack that contains medium-term inflation.
- Communication: one member argued that, if the rate is raised, it is better to do so together with guidance on the future path of the rate, something the December IPoM could provide.
- The consensus: all five agreed that the risk of the cost increase under way since March spreading to other prices had risen. If expectations become unanchored, "the cost of restoring convergence could be considerably higher," says the text quoted by CNN Chile.
The vote was cast by Governor Rosanna Costa, Vice Governor Alberto Naudon and board members Luis Felipe Céspedes, Claudio Soto and Kevin Cowan. It was the Board's 325th session, according to Rankia.
Inflation remains above target because of fuel
According to the minutes, the September CPI rose 0.4% in the month, 4.1% over twelve months and 4% year to date, while core inflation, which excludes the most volatile prices, stood at 3.2% a year. Both figures were in line with the IPoM forecast, but short-term inflation expectations "had increased significantly" and were well above the Central Bank's central path. Two years out, surveys remain close to target: 3% in the Economic Expectations Survey and 3.2% in the Financial Traders Survey.
| Month of 2026 | 12-month CPI |
|---|---|
| January | 2.8% |
| February | 2.4% |
| March | 2.8% |
| April | 4.0% |
| May | 3.9% |
| June | 4.3% |
| July | 3.5% |
| August | 4.1% |
| September | 4.1% |
Source: INE, 12-month change in the CPI. The jump from 2.8% in March to 4.0% in April coincides with the start of the oil price surge the minutes call "the shock since March." The breakdown by category is in our article on CPI and inflation in Chile in 2026.
View the data as a table
| 12-month CPI | Target | |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Feb | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| Mar | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Apr | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| May | 3.9% | 3.0% |
| Jun | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Jul | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| Aug | 4.1% | 3.0% |
| Sep | 4.1% | 3.0% |
A weak economy that holds back a rate hike
The other side of the scale is activity. The minutes note that the August Imacec fell 1.0% year on year and 0.7% from July in the seasonally adjusted series, worse than expected because of mining, and that third-quarter indicators showed weak consumption and, above all, weak investment. Unemployment rose slightly in the quarter ended in August. After the meeting, on November 2, the Central Bank reported that the September Imacec grew just 0.2% year on year, with mining down 12.1% and the rest of the economy up 2%, according to Emol.
Since the meeting, oil has also changed direction: on November 4, the same day the minutes were published, Brent fell 8.4% and dropped below US$100 after the US midterm elections. We analyze it in what the oil drop means for gasoline and the dollar in Chile.
Does your bank, brokerage or fintech want to reach people who follow the Central Bank's rate? Advertise on Pauta Financiera.
See advertising optionsHow the monetary policy rate has changed since 2022
The TPM reached 11.25% in October 2022 to curb post-pandemic inflation, began falling in July 2023 and ended 2024 at 5%. In 2025 it was cut to 4.75% in July and to 4.5% in December, and it has not moved since. The October minutes are the first of this cycle in which the Board seriously discusses a hike.
| End of | TPM | Change in the year (basis points) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.25% | +725 |
| 2023 | 8.25% | -300 |
| 2024 | 5.00% | -325 |
| 2025 | 4.50% | -50 |
| October 2026 | 4.50% | 0 |
Source: Central Bank of Chile, monetary policy rate, via mindicador.cl. The TPM started 2022 at 4%.
View the data as a table
| TPM | |
|---|---|
| Jan 22 | 5.50% |
| Feb 22 | 5.50% |
| Mar 22 | 7.00% |
| Apr 22 | 7.00% |
| May 22 | 8.25% |
| Jun 22 | 9.00% |
| Jul 22 | 9.75% |
| Aug 22 | 9.75% |
| Sep 22 | 10.75% |
| Oct 22 | 11.25% |
| Nov 22 | 11.25% |
| Dec 22 | 11.25% |
| Jan 23 | 11.25% |
| Feb 23 | 11.25% |
| Mar 23 | 11.25% |
| Apr 23 | 11.25% |
| May 23 | 11.25% |
| Jun 23 | 11.25% |
| Jul 23 | 10.25% |
| Aug 23 | 10.25% |
| Sep 23 | 9.50% |
| Oct 23 | 9.00% |
| Nov 23 | 9.00% |
| Dec 23 | 8.25% |
| Jan 24 | 8.25% |
| Feb 24 | 7.25% |
| Mar 24 | 7.25% |
| Apr 24 | 6.50% |
| May 24 | 6.00% |
| Jun 24 | 5.75% |
| Jul 24 | 5.75% |
| Aug 24 | 5.75% |
| Sep 24 | 5.50% |
| Oct 24 | 5.25% |
| Nov 24 | 5.25% |
| Dec 24 | 5.00% |
| Jan 25 | 5.00% |
| Feb 25 | 5.00% |
| Mar 25 | 5.00% |
| Apr 25 | 5.00% |
| May 25 | 5.00% |
| Jun 25 | 5.00% |
| Jul 25 | 4.75% |
| Aug 25 | 4.75% |
| Sep 25 | 4.75% |
| Oct 25 | 4.75% |
| Nov 25 | 4.75% |
| Dec 25 | 4.50% |
| Jan 26 | 4.50% |
| Feb 26 | 4.50% |
| Mar 26 | 4.50% |
| Apr 26 | 4.50% |
| May 26 | 4.50% |
| Jun 26 | 4.50% |
| Jul 26 | 4.50% |
| Aug 26 | 4.50% |
| Sep 26 | 4.50% |
| Oct 26 | 4.50% |
- October 2022TPM at 11.25%, the cycle peak
- July 2023First cut, to 10.25%
- December 2024Ends the year at 5%
- July 2025Cut to 4.75%
- December 2025Cut to 4.5%
- October 26-27, 2026Held at 4.5%, with a hike on the table
- December 15, 2026Next meeting and December IPoM
What the Central Bank minutes mean for your loans and savings
A higher TPM, or just the expectation that it will rise, makes bank funding more expensive and passes through first to short-term loans, such as consumer loans and credit lines, and to what time deposits pay. Mortgage rates, which are set in UF and over long terms, depend more on 5- and 10-year Central Bank bonds. If you are comparing a loan, check the annual equivalent cost (CAE), as we explain in how to compare consumer loan rates and CAE.
For savers, the news is the opposite: if the rate rises in December, peso time deposits would tend to pay somewhat more. How much a deposit earns today and which bank pays the most is in our guide to time deposits.
Frequently asked questions
What is the monetary policy rate today?
The TPM has been at 4.5% since December 2025. The Central Bank kept it at that level at its October 26-27, 2026 meeting.
What are the meeting minutes?
They are the summary the Central Bank publishes a few days after each Monetary Policy Meeting, with the options the Board discussed and members' arguments, without identifying who said what.
When is the next Central Bank meeting?
On Tuesday, December 15, 2026. The December Monetary Policy Report is also released that week.
Why did the Central Bank consider raising the rate?
Because oil rose about 25% since September and short-term inflation expectations increased significantly. The risk all five members saw is that the cost increase spreads to other prices.
